Why 2023 Was a Turning Point for Mini Splits
Anyone shopping for a ductless system today is buying into a market that was reshaped on January 1, 2023. That was the date the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) put its biggest round of HVAC efficiency changes in more than ten years into effect. Three things happened at once: the rating scale itself was swapped (SEER became SEER2 and HSPF became HSPF2), the floor for minimum efficiency went up, and the country was split into regions with their own rules about which equipment may be sold and installed.
Those changes still shape what homeowners pay, which models sit on distributor shelves, and how installers document a job. Below is a practical walkthrough for 2026, written for buyers first and for the trade second.
The Rating Scale Got a New Test
From Appendix M to Appendix M1
Before 2023, manufacturers rated equipment under a DOE procedure known as Appendix M. It was retired in favor of Appendix M1, a test designed to look more like a real house:
- More external static pressure during testing, meant to mimic the resistance air meets in actual ductwork. Ducted equipment feels this most, though ductless units are also reported with the new metrics.
- Revised test conditions that sit closer to how systems are really installed and run.
- The upshot: identical hardware earns a smaller number on the SEER2 and HSPF2 scales than it did on SEER and HSPF.
Converting Old Ratings to New
A rough rule of thumb works for both metrics:
- SEER2 comes out at about 0.95 times the old SEER figure, or around 5% lower
- HSPF2 lands at about 0.95 times HSPF
Take a system that used to be sold as SEER 20. Under the new test it shows up as roughly SEER2 19. Nothing inside the box changed; only the yardstick did. Going the other way, multiply a SEER2 figure by 1.05 for a ballpark of what it would have been called before.
The New Minimums, Region by Region
The floor now depends on both the kind of equipment and where it goes in.
| Equipment | Region | Minimum rating |
|---|---|---|
| Split air conditioner | North | 13.4 SEER2 |
| Split air conditioner | South (covers most of CA, TX and FL) | 14.3 SEER2 |
| Split air conditioner | Southwest | 14.3 SEER2 plus 11.7 EER2 |
| Split heat pump, mini splits included | Every region | 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 |
Ductless air conditioners and ductless heat pumps must clear the identical SEER2 and HSPF2 floors that apply to other split equipment. The rules cover systems built on or after January 1, 2023. Units manufactured before that date were still allowed to be installed, with sell-through allowances that differed from region to region.
Where the Regional Lines Fall
- North: heating-dominated states, namely CT, IA, ID, IL, IN, MA, ME, MI, MN, MT, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, VT, WA, WI and WY, along with parts of CO, DE, KS, KY, MD, MO, NV, UT, VA and WV.
- South: warmer states including AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, NM, OK, SC, TN and TX, the part of CA below the dividing line and part of AZ, plus sections of several other states.
- Southwest: this region takes in AZ and portions of CA, NV and NM. It is also the only region with an EER2 requirement on top of SEER2.
What Happened to the Products on the Shelf
Models That Disappeared
Once the new floors took effect, anything that could not reach them was barred from being built or imported for the U.S. market. The casualties were mostly:
- Low-cost ductless units that had carried SEER 14 to 15 ratings, which fall under 14.3 SEER2 after conversion
- Bottom-of-the-line models from assorted brands that had been sitting right at the old floor
- Fixed-speed (non-inverter) mini splits, a large share of which simply could not hit the new targets
How Manufacturers Filled the Gap
- They dropped low-efficiency lines when upgrading them would have cost too much
- They re-engineered compressors and coils on models worth keeping
- They made inverter compressors the default. Variable-speed units clear the minimums with room to spare, so what used to be an upsell became the starting point
- They moved to R-32 and R-454B refrigerants, which perform more efficiently in the redesigned systems
What It Did to Prices
- Entry level went up 10-20%. Units sitting at the former SEER 14 minimum, which sold for $600 to $800, made way for SEER2 15+ equipment priced at $700 to $1,000.
- The middle of the market barely moved. Models already rated SEER 18 or better passed without big redesigns.
- High-end units got a little cheaper. More competition among efficient models pushed innovation and brought modest price cuts.
- Across the market, a mini split of a given capacity now costs roughly 5-15% more than before 2023.
A Buyer's Checklist for 2026
Compliance Is Already Handled
New ductless equipment bought from a legitimate seller in 2026 meets the rules. Non-compliant units are no longer made, so there is no realistic way to stumble into buying one new.
Lower Numbers Do Not Mean Worse Equipment
If a SEER2 18 label looks unimpressive next to the SEER 20 systems you remember from a few years back, blame the test. The ratings shrank because the procedure got tougher, not because efficiency slipped. The hardware is equal or better. Use the 1.05 multiplier above if you want to compare against an older quote.
Expect an Inverter Compressor
Fixed-speed ductless units could still be found before 2023. Today practically every mini split sold in the country runs an inverter-driven compressor, since that is the cheapest route to compliance. Homeowners come out ahead, because variable-speed operation brings:
- Steadier room temperatures without constant starting and stopping
- Energy use 30-50% lower than fixed-speed equipment
- Less noise
- A compressor that tends to last longer
Check Which Rating a Listing Uses
Plenty of old brochures, Amazon product pages and even contractor proposals still quote plain SEER. When comparing, make sure every figure is SEER2 so you are measuring current equipment on the same scale.
The Install Address Sets the Rules
Online buyers sometimes order from a seller in a different state. What counts is where the system gets installed. Equipment that is fine in Washington, a North region state, may fall short in Arizona, where the Southwest region's EER2 requirement applies.
What It Means for Installers and Distributors
Clearing Out Old Stock
- Sell-through rules gave pre-2023 inventory a limited window to move
- By 2026 that legacy stock should be gone entirely
- Businesses left holding non-compliant units had to scrap them or sell them at a loss
Paperwork on Every Job
- Confirm the equipment satisfies the standard for its region before it goes in
- Record the AHRI certification numbers for the matched indoor and outdoor combination
- Keep documentation proving the installed system hits the SEER2 and HSPF2 minimums
Risks of Installing Below the Floor
Putting in non-compliant equipment, however it was obtained, can cancel the manufacturer warranty, cause problems with permits and inspections, and leave the installer liable for work that falls under the legal minimum.
Efficiency Tiers Above the DOE Floor
Meeting the DOE minimum gets a unit onto the market. Energy Star sits above that floor, and the Energy Star Most Efficient label asks for higher SEER2 and HSPF2 ratings still. Many utility rebate programs use these tiers as their cutoff, so check what your utility requires before you pick a model.
| Level | Rating needed |
|---|---|
| DOE floor | 14.3 SEER2 |
| Energy Star | 16+ SEER2 (depends on product) |
| CEE Tier 1 | 16.0+ SEER2 and 9.0+ HSPF2 |
| CEE Tier 2 (Most Efficient) | 17.0+ SEER2 and 9.5+ HSPF2 |
More Rule Changes on the Horizon
Refrigerants, 2025 Through 2027
Under the AIM Act, production of HFCs such as R-410A is being stepped down. Refrigerants R-32 and R-454B are replacing it, and ductless manufacturers are converting their product lines so that most new models will run on low-GWP refrigerant by 2027. Retooling factories could bring another wave of price changes.
Higher Efficiency Floors Later
The DOE revisits its minimums on a recurring basis, and the next possible update window is 2027 to 2029. The direction of travel points to higher floors, possibly SEER2 15 or more nationwide, while Energy Star keeps raising its own bar.
States Going Further
- California's Title 24 is one of the toughest building energy codes in the country
- Washington State mandates heat pumps in many types of new construction
- Colorado, Massachusetts and New York are heading toward electrification requirements
- Rules at the state level can be stricter than the federal DOE floor
Putting It All Together
The 2023 changes shook up the industry, but three years on the market has settled. For people buying a ductless system, the effect has mostly been good news:
- Every unit you can buy now is more efficient than typical pre-2023 stock
- Inverter compressors are everywhere, which means better comfort and smaller utility bills
- Prices have leveled off after the early jump
- Credits pay you back for going beyond the minimum, which puts better equipment within reach
There is no need to worry about the regulations themselves; they are settled. Put your attention on the SEER2 rating that suits your climate and budget, confirm Energy Star status if your utility rebate requires it, and buy from a supplier who can verify compliance for the region where the system will be installed. If you want a second look at the ratings on a specific model, Sacramento HVAC Store can go over it with you through our contact page.